🥇
ESTIMATE
34.7%
—
Antalya R6
SKIP Results in Edge: 1.7347
📅 2026-03-05
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 5 runners
🥈
CONTINUOUS
32.3%
1st
🥉
EL RIO
10.6%
—
#4
PRENSES SYLVESTER
0.1%
4th
#5
QUEEN PROTEO
0.1%
5th
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (1.7347) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (1.7347) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.