🥇
ESENGÜR
Gate 1
99.9%
—
İzmir R3
STRONG Results in Edge: 5.0
📅 2026-03-05
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 5 runners
🥈
LUNA
Gate 5
12.9%
—
🥉
MİRAY ABLA
Gate 3
1.6%
—
#4
HAREMLİ KIZ
Gate 2
0.5%
—
#5
CANFEZA
Gate 4
0.1%
—
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (5.0) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (5.0) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.