🥇
IŞILS A MELİNA
65.8%
Bursa R5
LEAN Edge: 3.2895
📅 2026-03-06
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 5 runners
🥈
MISS CONQUEROR
3.2%
🥉
WHITE WOLF
0.5%
#4
PASTITSIO
0.1%
#5
TM BATAILE
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.2895) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 5-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.2895) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.