🥇
GRAND MISSION
22.1%
Bursa R7
LEAN Edge: 3.3206
📅 2026-03-06
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 15 runners
🥈
KING OF THE NIGHT
12.9%
🥉
TONG PO
6.7%
#4
ASALTIN
3.2%
#5
BY YAĞIZ
0.1%
#6
HERO WIND
0.1%
#7
JAY JAY
0.1%
#8
KING OF ALİ
0.1%
#9
PAKSUHAN
0.1%
#10
RICO PASHA
0.1%
#11
SIDNEY SHOW
0.1%
#12
TYRAXES
0.1%
#13
ULTRA EMRE
0.1%
#14
YAVUZEMRE
0.1%
#15
İSKENDERUNLU SUAT
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 15-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.3206) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 15-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.3206) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.