🥇
STALWART HERA
51.8%
Adana R4
LEAN Edge: 7.25
📅 2026-03-07
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 14 runners
🥈
FORLORN
42.1%
🥉
HEARTED
42.1%
#4
GRAND RAPIDS
40.0%
#5
ALLY SUE
22.1%
#6
TEMPESTA MIA
13.0%
#7
COPPER SON
12.9%
#8
GEL OGLİM
12.9%
#9
GOLDEN RACER
12.9%
#10
ATLANTIC BLACK
0.5%
#11
VICTORY MATRA
0.5%
#12
WAR VOEL
0.5%
#13
RUSHMORE
0.1%
#14
TALE OF THE DREAM
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 14-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (7.25) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 14-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (7.25) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.