🥇
BAY ARAZ
22.1%
Adana R7
LEAN Edge: 2.4351
📅 2026-03-07
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 11 runners
🥈
ALTUNÇURA
15.4%
🥉
GONDAR
3.2%
#4
BÜYÜKATAK
0.1%
#5
DEDEBATUR
0.1%
#6
EN BÜYÜK
0.1%
#7
HARŞİT BEYİ
0.1%
#8
KIR FATİH
0.1%
#9
OĞLUM VELAT
0.1%
#10
İLBARS
0.1%
#11
ŞAHKAYA
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 11-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (2.4351) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 11-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (2.4351) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.