🥇
ACTION WONDER
81.2%
İstanbul R5
STRONG Edge: 4.875
📅 2026-03-07
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 6 runners
🥈
JAEHAERA
34.7%
🥉
ENDLESS LOVE
0.1%
#4
HOLD FAST
0.1%
#5
LADYBIRD
0.1%
#6
MARY BLACK
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 6-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (4.875) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 6-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (4.875) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.