🥇
HARDOLD
22.1%
İstanbul R8
LEAN Edge: 3.0992
📅 2026-03-07
🤖 XGBoost v1 · Mar 4, 2026
🏇 14 runners
🥈
GREY GHOST
15.6%
🥉
SUICIDE KING
1.6%
#4
WINNER GETS IT ALL
0.5%
#5
BAHRAIN
0.1%
#6
KANDO
0.1%
#7
KING ZAGOR
0.1%
#8
MAD RUNNER
0.1%
#9
MAMBA FOREVER
0.1%
#10
MIAMI BOY
0.1%
#11
MR CİNO
0.1%
#12
PAPA RUNNER
0.1%
#13
PILOTS BOY
0.1%
#14
SIRIUS VEGA
0.1%
About these probabilities
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 14-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.0992) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.
Calibrated via isotonic regression on walk-forward validated out-of-sample predictions. A horse shown at 30% has historically won ~30% of the time when given similar probability. Based on 14-runner field analysis using 60+ features.
Edge Score (3.0992) = top pick's win probability × field size. A score of 1.0 means no advantage over random selection; STRONG (≥ 3.5) means the model's top pick is more than 3.5× more likely to win than a random runner. The confidence tier also requires a minimum probability gap between 1st and 2nd pick.